Depends.
There is a chance of failure or partial failure if the advancement is too conservative. There is ALWAYS a risk to surgery, in this case a failure to resolve your underlying problem.
It also depends on the type of surgery you are considering.
Assuming you are considering a BSSO, you might consider a sleep study with a titratable mandibular advancement splint. It might indicate whether 10mm is sufficient to prevent apneas/hypopneas, or if you need 15mm advancement. Unfortunately, this brief snapshot is all the objective evidence available to give you surgical direction.
Surgery for OSA is not a perfect science. Improve your parameters by losing weight, sleeping on your side, avoiding alcohol and sedatives, and focusing on nasal breathing (or treating an underlying nasal issue).