TRUE FORCE TRANSFORMATION!!!!

[Lazlo]

ditterbo I've pm'd you, file size of my post-op ceph is to larage and I have no idea how to read it.

[jusken]

I know I'm going to sound like I've gone crazy, but I'm starting to think all of this stuff is a waste of time guys.  If you're massively deformed, jaw surgery is a treatment option.  Otherwise, if you can wait - wait.

In like 10-15 years the whole medical field is going to get massively reformed by AI: deepmind, neural nets, everyone is ramping up big time on this stuff.  It might sound unrelated to health or aesthetics, but will offer ultra precise diagnoses and treatments.  Google and everyone else in AI are starting to focus on medical research.  This really is the only way systemic problems can be accurately diagnosed and treated.  Going through with many medieval bone cutting operations and foreign implants just isn't enough and often (if not every time) causes problems that are difficult to live with (undercorrects, overcorrects, or leaves you worse off).  And they are usually just a small piece of the big picture in terms of correction.

It sounds scifi - but it really is beginning on a large scale.  Tissue engineering, synthesis and repair will just be on a different level entirely.  Current surgery is just all just marketing masquerading around on these archaic procedures.  So, as long as you aren't debilitated by your jaw or whatever, just wait it out!  Stop thinking about how to salvage your issues with a laundry list of operations!  Surgeons are just normal, dumb people like the rest of us...  and you most likely will have complications.

(once again, I don't think I've lost my mind - haha)

[ppsk]

I know I'm going to sound like I've gone crazy, but I'm starting to think all of this stuff is a waste of time guys.  If you're massively deformed, jaw surgery is a treatment option.  Otherwise, if you can wait - wait.

In like 10-15 years the whole medical field is going to get massively reformed by AI: deepmind, neural nets, everyone is ramping up big time on this stuff.  It might sound unrelated to health or aesthetics, but will offer ultra precise diagnoses and treatments.  Google and everyone else in AI are starting to focus on medical research.  This really is the only way systemic problems can be accurately diagnosed and treated.  Going through with many medieval bone cutting operations and foreign implants just isn't enough and often (if not every time) causes problems that are difficult to live with (undercorrects, overcorrects, or leaves you worse off).  And they are usually just a small piece of the big picture in terms of correction.

It sounds scifi - but it really is beginning on a large scale.  Tissue engineering, synthesis and repair will just be on a different level entirely.  Current surgery is just all just marketing masquerading around on these archaic procedures.  So, as long as you aren't debilitated by your jaw or whatever, just wait it out!  Stop thinking about how to salvage your issues with a laundry list of operations!  Surgeons are just normal, dumb people like the rest of us...  and you most likely will have complications.

(once again, I don't think I've lost my mind - haha)

I can show you posts from the early 00s, of people on hair loss forums banking on the "amazing" advancements that were happening with biomed technology, just wait 5 years. 5 years later.... These guys are almost to market!.... 5 years later.... The cure is here.... 5 years later... guess what 2 years in of the next 5 year period and the best the market has to offer is a rehash of technology that has existed since the 1960s - no joke

Most of the s**t you read about biomed is purely marketing hype - its also why investors are jumping ship from biomed and treating it as a bubble that is going to pop any day now.

You can call me a cynic, but really i'm just being pragmatic: the known factor is that a good surgeon can make you look better somewhat to significantly at the cost of risk of nerve damage or functional issues. The unknown factor is "waiting" through your youth for the possibility that some great revolutionary advancement will rear its head. Not I sir.

[jusken]

I can show you posts from the early 00s, of people on hair loss forums banking on the "amazing" advancements that were happening with biomed technology, just wait 5 years. 5 years later.... These guys are almost to market!.... 5 years later.... The cure is here.... 5 years later... guess what 2 years in of the next 5 year period and the best the market has to offer is a rehash of technology that has existed since the 1960s - no joke

Most of the s**t you read about biomed is purely marketing hype - its also why investors are jumping ship from biomed and treating it as a bubble that is going to pop any day now.

You can call me a cynic, but really i'm just being pragmatic: the known factor is that a good surgeon can make you look better somewhat to significantly at the cost of risk of nerve damage or functional issues. The unknown factor is "waiting" through your youth for the possibility that some great revolutionary advancement will rear its head. Not I sir.

Perfectly understandable position.  At this point, it's normal to be ultra cynical.

But, the paradigm shift is AI - which is quickly becoming a multi-trillion dollar industry.  We are currently so limited at analyzing massive amounts of data without AI assistance, which has been the cause of such slow progress in many fields in recent years.  I work in the tech industry, so maybe I'm just getting swept up in the craze, but people are really excited and enthusiastic about this (and people are flocking to this field).  Many people think a conservative estimate for something as broad as AGI is by 2030.  If that's true, progress would be a near vertical at that point - but of course we can't know every road block we'll run into - and something less disruptive might even be preferable.  We're talking unprecedented job displacement.

And that's what is at the center of all this. You're talking about a small number of personnel looking under a microscope versus astounding amounts of data and processing power.  It's a completely different approach to the problem.  So yeah, if you can't wait and still have a lot of faith in something that hasn't changed much in 30+ years, by all means.  But, it's analogous to eye balling the problem with a hacksaw from my perspective.

[Lazlo]

Man, this is so whack. Both PPSK and JUSKEN are right.


I have this hope and faith that in 10 years ( I mean I'll be OLD by then, but regardless) everything will change and there will be significantly cooler better things.

But then I've seen forums for acne scar improvements and hairloss where PPSK is is right they were banking on things being radically different in the 90s and 00s and basically we have the same s**t. Even in 2013 you see things like wow scientists can grow teeth it's just a matter of years before it's available. Well listen you prob won't see it even by 2030 so what does "years" mean in this context.

But it's true. Jaw surgery is a completely medieval procedure the way it is currently practiced. I mean sometimes I feel my face and I feel like its been akin to a recovery from a car accident.

[Lazlo]

Perfectly understandable position.  At this point, it's normal to be ultra cynical.

But, the paradigm shift is AI - which is quickly becoming a multi-trillion dollar industry.  We are currently so limited at analyzing massive amounts of data without AI assistance, which has been the cause of such slow progress in many fields in recent years.  I work in the tech industry, so maybe I'm just getting swept up in the craze, but people are really excited and enthusiastic about this (and people are flocking to this field).  Many people think a conservative estimate for something as broad as AGI is by 2030.  If that's true, progress would be a near vertical at that point - but of course we can't know every road block we'll run into - and something less disruptive might even be preferable.  We're talking unprecedented job displacement.

And that's what is at the center of all this. You're talking about a small number of personnel looking under a microscope versus astounding amounts of data and processing power.  It's a completely different approach to the problem.  So yeah, if you can't wait and still have a lot of faith in something that hasn't changed much in 30+ years, by all means.  But, it's analogous to eye balling the problem with a hacksaw in my perspective.

oh man, my prayers are that you're right. even though its too late for me.

[PloskoPlus]

IMO there is simply nothing to data mine in the case of jaw surgery. There should be a massive data base of surgery cases, so all surgeons have access to all kinds of cases and outcomes. No such thing exists. Heck they don't even follow up their own cases more than a year out. We don't even know what will happen to that hardware in our faces 30 years out.

Surgery is not a science, it's a damn craft. I think they like to keep it that way.

[jusken]

Lol. AI changing jaw surgery by 2030. Thanks for the laugh.

Didn't say jaw surgery specifically, but if AI isn't strongly incorporated in most tasks we do by then I'd be very surprised.  Tell you what, you'll definitely have a reading comprehension assistant by then

Anyway, just makes me feel better to share this info with people planning on doing lots of surgeries they'll likely regret.  I've already gone down the road of jaw surgery (got statistically a good result - with some light nerve damage) and I think I've learned everything I need to know about it...

[Lazlo]

Didn't say jaw surgery specifically, but if AI isn't strongly incorporated in most tasks we do by then I'd be very surprised.  Tell you what, you'll definitely have a reading comprehension assistant by then

Anyway, just makes me feel better to share this info with people planning on doing lots of surgeries they'll likely regret.  I've already gone down the road of jaw surgery (got statistically a good result - with some light nerve damage) and I think I've learned everything I need to know about it...

Yeah I appreciate what you're saying. I feel like orthodontics is one place where changes really need to take place.

[jusken]

IMO there is simply nothing to data mine in the case of jaw surgery. There should be a massive data base of surgery cases, so all surgeons have access to all kinds of cases and outcomes. No such thing exists. Heck they don't even follow up their own cases more than a year out. We don't even know what will happen to that hardware in our faces 30 years out.

Surgery is not a science, it's a damn craft. I think they like to keep it that way.

Deep Neural Networks (current tech) - it would be an AI assistant to a doctor.  You could pass massive amounts of data into this for diagnostics, from facial aesthetics, tissue analysis, X-rays everything.  The more the better.  This in itself wouldn't replace having a surgeon.

AGI - further into the future - would replace the surgeon entirely.

ASI - who cares about your face at that point I think.

Haha anyway, this is starting to sound like a scifi movie plot.

[Lazlo]

Deep Neural Networks (current tech) - it would be an AI assistant to a doctor.  You could pass massive amounts of data into this for diagnostics, from facial aesthetics, tissue analysis, X-rays everything.  The more the better.  This in itself wouldn't replace having a surgeon.

AGI - further into the future - would replace the surgeon entirely.

ASI - who cares about your face at that point I think.

Haha anyway, this is starting to sound like a scifi movie plot.

Yeah, the one thing we can all agree on is the world will definitely be a RADICALLY different place by 2030. I envy those of you in your 20s.

[Lazlo]

Deep Neural Networks (current tech) - it would be an AI assistant to a doctor.  You could pass massive amounts of data into this for diagnostics, from facial aesthetics, tissue analysis, X-rays everything.  The more the better.  This in itself wouldn't replace having a surgeon.

AGI - further into the future - would replace the surgeon entirely.

ASI - who cares about your face at that point I think.

Haha anyway, this is starting to sound like a scifi movie plot.

When you say you "work in tech" are you like a computer programmer for a tech company or like some retail dude at a kiosk for cell phones in a  strip mall?

[jusken]

When you say you "work in tech" are you like a computer programmer for a tech company or like some retail dude at a kiosk for cell phones in a  strip mall?

 

Haha damn Lazlo, I did those images for you.  I get it, you're a busy guy...

I work with engineers, so I'm not doing AI myself, but I'm close to it...

[Lazlo]

 

Haha damn Lazlo, I did those images for you.  I get it, you're a busy guy...

I work with engineers, so I'm not doing AI myself, but I'm close to it...

Oh dude, I'm so sorry. My bad. I totally forgot who you were. And the other stuff....   Don't worry a Lannister....